Are Farmer Suicides in India Related to Cotton Cultivation?

The following articles were published in the 'Cotton Statistics and News' newsletter of the Cotton Association of India

Kranthi K.R. 2014. Agrarian Crisis – Why farmers commit suicide? Part-1 CAI-Vol 44 Cotton Statistics and News, Published by Cotton Association of India, Mumbai

Kranthi K.R. 2015. Agrarian Crisis Part-2. CAI-Vol 2 Cotton Statistics and News, Published by Cotton Association of India, Mumbai

Kranthi K.R. 2015. Agrarian Crisis – Why farmers commit suicide? Part-3 CAI-Vol 6 Cotton Statistics and News, Published by Cotton Association of India, Mumbai

Is cotton cultivation connected with farmer suicides? Part 1.

K. R. Kranthi

The issue of farmer suicides is very sensitive, sad and tragic. Over the past two decades, cases of farmer suicides have highlighted the growing agrarian crisis, especially in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. There have been attempts to connect farmer suicides with cotton cultivation in several cotton growing states. Bt-cotton was also critically examined for its possible role in the suicides mainly across Vidarbha. I am making an attempt to understand the farmer-suicide patterns in relation to cotton cultivation, yields, profitability and Bt-cotton. A short note such as this may not be able to deeply examine and surmise the tragic trends of farmer suicides, but can certainly present preliminary insights that could trigger further analysis.

Table No 1. Farmer Suicides in 2013

2013	Area in lakh hectares		cotton area %	Total Farmers Number (Lakhs)	Suicide Cases No.	Suicide rate Per lakh farmers
	Total Area	Cotton
South India
Andhra Pradesh + Telangana	142.93	24.0	16.8	131.75	3014	22.877
Karnataka	121.61	4.85	4.0	78.32	1403	17.914
Tamilnadu	64.88	1.28	2.0	81.18	105	1.293
Central India
Gujarat	99.79	24.97	25.0	47.39	582	12.281
Madhya Pradesh	158.36	6.08	3.8	88.72	1090	12.286
Maharashtra	198.42	41.46	20.9	136.99	3146	22.965
Odisha	48.62	1.70	3.5	46.67	150	3.214
North India
Haryana	36.46	6.14	16.8	16.17	374	23.129
Punjab	39.67	4.80	12.1	10.53	83	7.882
Rajasthan	211.38	4.50	2.1	68.88	292	4.239

Suicides may not be due to Cotton in at least nine cotton growing states

Suicides have been reported from all the eleven major cotton growing states. However, data presented in table 1., shows that it would be improper to associate cotton with the large number of suicide cases, especially in states which have less than 4.0% of cultivated area under cotton. The suicide trends have been presented in graphs 1, 2 and 3. It must also be mentioned here that the number of suicides in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh are high with an average of 2100 and 1600 per year over the past 18 years in both the states respectively. But, cotton occupies 2.0 to 4.0% of the cultivated area in both these states as well as other cotton growing states such as Odisha, Tamilnadu and Rajasthan.  The area under other crops is more than 96% and it is unlikely that farmers would depend only on cotton for their livelihood in these states. Therefore it may not be appropriate to link cotton with the total number of suicides in these states.

Cotton occupies about 17% of the area in Haryana and 12% of the net cultivated area in Punjab. Therefore cotton cultivation has a larger economic impact in these six states. But, the average number of farmer suicide cases over the past 18 years was 79 in Punjab and 204 in Haryana. Cotton economics follow very dynamic and fluctuating trends that generally have a stronger impact, especially when input costs increase, cotton market prices are low and yields start declining. With a consistently lesser average number of suicide cases in the two states, it is also not very likely that cotton crop could have influenced the suicides.

Similarly, farmer suicides have also been reported from Gujarat, albeit at a relatively lesser scale of about 500 to 600 cases each year over the past 20 years at 12 farmers per lakh farmers in the state. Graph 2., shows the patterns of farmer suicides in Gujarat and central India. Data show that the suicides appear to be unrelated to cotton and also unaffected with any agrarian changes in the state, least of all with Bt cotton. Gujarat is an important state for cotton with about 25 to 28 lakh hectares which is about 25% of the land under agriculture in the state. Though the cotton area was less than one-fourth, it has been contributing about one third of the total cotton production of the country over the past 12 years. Thus the farmer suicide cases in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Odisha and Tamilnadu are less likely to be connected to cotton cultivation.

Farmer Suicides in AP and Maharashtra are more worrisome

Cotton is cultivated in a vast area of about 42 lakh hectares in Maharashtra, which is about 21% of the total cultivated area in the state. In Andhra Pradesh + Telangana, cotton is cultivated in about 24 lakh hectares which is about 17% of the cultivated area in both states put together. The suicide rates are relatively higher at about 23 persons per one lakh farmers in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh + Telangana during the recent years of 2012 and 2013. The average number of suicide cases over the past 18 years is also high at 2100 per year in Andhra Pradesh and 3300 per year in Maharashtra. It is possible that farmer suicides or agrarian crisis may be associated with cotton cultivation in these states. Thus it would be logical to surmise that the issue of farmer suicides is a matter of more serious concern in the central Indian region of Maharashtra and Andhra + Telangana.

Is there any connection between yields and suicides?

Cotton yields before and after the introduction of Bt cotton are presented in table 2. It would be pertinent to mention here that the average yields increased by 41.9% in Punjab, 56.7% in Haryana  and 24% in Rajasthan after 2005 subsequent to the introduction of Bt cotton in north India. However the yield increases were significant at 103% in Maharashtra and 79.5% in Gujarat after 2002, when Bt cotton was introduced in central and south India. After 2002, yields increased by 15% in Andhra Pradesh + Telangana, 37% in Karnataka and 65% in Tamilnadu.  However, the average yields in Madhya Pradesh declined by 3.8% after the introduction of Bt cotton in the state. Thus as seen in table 2., suicides do not appear to be influenced with the yields. 

Table 2. Changes in yield Kg/ha lint before and after Bt cotton

Yield kg/ha lint		State	% change
*Prior to Bt cotton	**With Bt cotton
409	581	Punjab	41.93
337	528	Haryana	56.74
398	494	Rajasthan	24.10
370	664	Gujarat	79.56
152	308	Maharashtra	103.28
507	487	Madhya Pradesh	-3.86
493	570	Andhra Pradesh	15.58
255	350	Karnataka	37.01
438	722	Tamilnadu	64.90
351	369	Others	5.21

*Average yield over 7 years in north India prior to 2005 **and 7 years from 2006 to 2013 with Bt cotton. * Average yield over 11 years in central and south India prior to 2002 **and 11 years from 2003 to 2013 with Bt cotton.

Farmer suicides in Vidarbha –are they linked to cotton?

Farmer suicides were mainly reported from Akola, Amaravati, Buldhana, Wardha, Nagpur and Yavatmal. However, the average lint yields during 1999 to 2005 were only about 150 Kg/ha prior to the wide-spread adoption of Bt cotton in these districts. Productivity almost doubled to an average of 290 Kg lint per hectare over the five year period 2006 to 2010 with increased adoption of Bt cotton.

Table 3. Productivity (Kg/ha lint) in Vidarbha

	Akola	Amravati	Buldhana	Chandrapur	Nagpur	Wardha	Washim	Yavatmal	Average
1999	166	130	174	191	278	222	151	171	170
2000	116	82	69	112	151	193	86	90	102
2001	143	119	153	120	163	154	153	119	135
2002	171	148	197	129	165	161	144	132	154
2003	155	174	237	210	264	229	141	173	188
2004	113	136	128	165	235	219	122	146	146
2005	118	148	196	171	229	186	177	148	160
2006	365	151	214	310	212	227	172	202	224
2007	334	342	379	354	287	327	421	412	371
2008	292	271	290	284	244	208	147	319	284
2009	288	293	266	243	238	233	230	220	251
2010	325	320	320	325	443	348	315	280	319

Compiled by Reddy, A. R (2012) CICR, Nagpur

Data presented in table No. 3 clearly reflects the yield increases in all the Vidarbha districts. Bt cotton contributed to effective bollworm control in Vidarbha thus resulting in reduction of pesticide usage and increase in yields. Nevertheless, it must also be noted that the input costs, mainly seeds, fertilizers and labour had also increased significantly during this period. Net profitability is an important consideration. Expectations increased and input costs also increased during the period when yields increased in Vidarbha. CICR conducted surveys in Maharashtra for three years from 2006 to 2009 to understand if cotton cultivation was in any way mainly responsible for ‘farmer suicides’ in the state with specific focus on Vidarbha. We interviewed 720 farmers from 120 villages in Wardha, Yeotmal and Nagpur districts. The net profit had increased from Rs 1855/ha in 2007 to 5209/ha in 2008. Interestingly this period coincided with a sudden increase in the area under Bt cotton from 35% in 2007 to 98% within the next two years. The net returns were Rs 5722/ha in Wardha and Rs 6733/ha in Nagpur during 2007-08 when Bt cotton had reached a saturation. Bt cotton controlled bollworms effectively and thus resulted in significant reduction in insecticides that were hitherto used excessively to manage the insecticide resistant bollworms. Moreover insecticides had become ineffective and yield losses could not be prevented efficiently.

The pattern of suicides in relation to the yields, as seen in graph 4., is actually difficult to explain in Maharashtra. Productivity in Maharashtra increased over the years from 159 kg/ha lint in 1995 to 274 kg/ha lint in 2006. Strangely, farmer suicides in the state increased steadily during this period with 1083 cases in 1995 to 4453 cases in 2006. Subsequently the suicide numbers came down to 2872 cases in 2009 and fluctuated between 3141 and 3786 until 2013. The yields were relatively better at 330 to 350 kg/ha lint during 2009 to 2013. Though the yields increased in Vidarbha and Maharashtra over the past 7-8 years, after extensive adoption of Bt cotton, an in-depth analysis of the changes in economics during the period 2009 to 2012 needs to be examined critically to understand as to why suicides increased when the yields were increasing during this period.

Are farmer suicides linked to cotton in Andhra Pradesh?

The yield trends in Andhra + Telangana appear to be associated with suicide cases, albeit in a manner that shows short term immediate effects. Perusal of the graph 5., shows that yields were stagnant from 1995 to 2005 and the number of suicides doubled during the period from 1196 suicides in 1995 to 2666 cases in 2004. However a closer look at the patterns show that whenever yields increased in the short term, suicide numbers also decreased. Decline in yield also appears to have lead to increase in suicides over the short term in spurts.  For example yields increased from 471 kg/ha in 2004 to 687 kg/ha in 2007 and the suicides decreased from 2666 cases in 2004 to 1797 in 2007. Subsequently the yields declined from 687 kg/ha in 2007 to 505 Kg/ha in 2010 and the suicides increased from 1797 in 2007 to 2525 in 2010. The trend after 2010 is a bit difficult to comprehend, with concomitant increase in yields and suicides until 2013.

Conclusion of Part 1:

Agrarian crisis is a sad phenomenon. It must be tackled at all levels. Insightful studies have been conducted on the phenomenon of farmer suicides in India. Some very useful data and analysis have been published by P. Sainath, Dr Dhandekar, Dr Srijit Mishra, Dr Nagaraj, planning commission and many others. Based on analysis, I feel that farmer suicides are certainly related to the growing agrarian crisis. Many suicides in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra may be related to the growing input and labour costs, stagnant yields, decreasing market demand and prices of cotton. Suicides in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh merit special concern and attention. Suicides in all the other cotton growing states are unlikely to be associated with cotton since other crops play an important role in agrarian economics, unlike the predominant role of cotton as in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. As mentioned in almost all publications, the issue of suicides relates to indebtedness, backlog in irrigation projects, mismatch between expectations and actual yields, poor infrastructure and ever increasing production costs that are not commensurate with market prices. I will focus more on these issues in the next part of this note. To surmise, there is no escaping the fact, that, more than anything else, there is need for a strong political will from the establishment to frame appropriate policies to find long term sustainable solutions to the problem.

Agrarian Crisis – Why farmers commit suicide? Part-2

What can drive a farmer to take a step as extreme as suicide? During one of my recent visits to a village near Wardha, an old man remarked ‘If poverty was a reason for suicides, crores of Indians would have killed themselves all through these hundreds of years. It is not poverty that can kill any of us. It is the cumulative failure of high expectations that drives farmers to despair’. He pointed out to the long narrow stony road and said, ‘For 30 years now, I have been carrying cotton on my bullock cart on this 15 km stretch to reach the main road. The nearest mill is another 20 km from there. I only hear promises year after year, but neither my road nor my journey gets any better’. That summed it all. Indeed, the cotton farmer’s journey is getting tougher by the day at least in Maharashtra.

This second part of the article examines the factors in cotton farming that may have caused distress. New technologies certainly lead to renewed hope and high expectations. Many farmers associate high income with high investment in farm inputs. High investment and low returns can easily cause indebtedness, disappointment and distress. Successive crop failures due to weather vagaries such as drought, delayed onset of monsoon and hail-storms cause immense distress. A critical analysis of the data available on the official web site http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/ of the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) of the Ministry of Agriculture, GOI showed that compared to all cotton growing states in the country, the average annual profits were the lowest in Maharashtra. The cost of cultivation sky rocketed in recent times and net returns plummeted to abysmal depths. The DES data showed that over the nine year period of 2003 to 2011 the average annual net profits on cotton cultivation in Maharashtra were Rs 382 for an investment of Rs 10,000. If a farmer invested one lakh he would get a net profit of Rs 3,820 at the end of the cropping season. Can this support livelihood?

Several surveys have been conducted in recent times to analyze the economic impact of cotton cultivation in various parts of India. There are at least a dozen research papers on the subject, most of them on the possible positive impact of Bt-cotton in recent years. The data presented in these papers were mainly derived from village visits and sample surveys. This article deals with results analyzed from the Government data 1996-97 up to 2011-12 available on http://eands.dacnet.nic.in/  The data include details on the cost of cotton production to the best possible extent on all the key components.

Some important questions have been raised from time to time on the recent rising costs of cotton production after the introduction of Bt cotton, as the possible cause of distress. These questions are primarily related to enhanced cost of seeds, increased labour wages, increased insecticide and fertilizer usage, stagnant yields and declining net profits which are most likely to have a strong influence on farmer livelihood and agrarian crisis. Many authors and researchers attempted to connect farmer suicides with cotton cultivation, at least in two major cotton growing states i.e Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Indeed, as mentioned in the part-1 of my article in the CAI Newsletter (27 Jan 2015) compared to other crops, cotton is likely to have a major impact on farmer livelihood in states where the crop occupies substantially larger proportion of the cultivated area. For example, cotton occupies 25% of Gujarat’s agricultural area, 20.9% of Maharashtra’s cultivated area; 16.8% of the agriculture area in erstwhile Andhra Pradesh (including Telangana); 16.8% of Haryana’s cultivated area and 12.0% of the cultivated area in Punjab. In rest of the cotton growing states cotton is cultivated in less than 4.0% of the cultivated area and is unlikely to be the sole factor in any major impact that agriculture may have on the farming community. Therefore it is possible that compared to other crops, the economics of cotton cultivation in Maharashtra, AP, Gujarat, Haryana and Punjab may have a stronger impact on farmers livelihood. However, as mentioned in the part-1 of the article, the annual numbers of farmer suicides over the past 10 years in Maharashtra (3685 suicides) and AP (2440 suicides) are significantly higher compared to the significantly lesser annual average number of suicides during 2004-2013 in Gujarat (530), Haryana (238) and Punjab (79). Thus it is important to examine the factors that may have been responsible for the agrarian distress in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.

Farmer suicides over the past decade

An annual average number of 15,369 cases of farmer suicides were reported across the 10 cotton growing states during the 9 year period 1995 to 2003 prior to the introduction of Bt cotton in India. During the subsequent 10 years from 2004 to 2013 the average number of farmer suicides was 15,815. Thus the data show a marginal overall 3.0% increase in the number of suicides over the past 10 year period compared to the decade prior to 2003. The annual average number of suicides declined in seven cotton growing states during the past 10 year period as compared to the previous decade (graphs 1 to 3). The decrease was 31% in MP, 29% in Tamilnadu, 28% in Odisha, 15% in Karnataka, 8% each in Rajasthan and Gujarat and 2% in Punjab. However, it must be noted that despite increase in the yields there was 39% increase in Maharashtra (graph 4) and 51% increase in erstwhile Andhra Pradesh (graph 5) in the annual average number of suicides during 2004-2013 compared to 1995-2003. It is important to elucidate the possible reasons for the increase in suicides.

As mentioned in the introductory paragraph, amongst all cotton growing states in India, the net returns from cotton cultivation are the lowest in Maharashtra. The cost of cultivation at Rs 61,907 in 2011-12 ranks amongst the highest with dismally pathetic net profit of Rs 3.82 per Rs 100 invested on cotton cultivation. The following passages examine the factors responsible for the high cost of cotton cultivation and lowest net returns in Maharashtra.

Has chemical usage increased in cotton?

It is a well known fact that hybrids need higher chemical inputs for high yields. Interestingly, out of the 80 cotton growing nations, India is the only country to cultivate hybrid cotton, and that too in 95% of its total cotton acreage. The area under hybrid cotton in India was 40% in 2003, but increased to 95% in 2011 after the Bt technology was restricted only to hybrids. During this period, insecticide usage increased by a staggering 8.9 fold in Gujarat and to an extent of 5.2 fold in Maharashtra (table 4). In other major cotton growing states, insecticide usage more than doubled over the 6-8 years prior to 2011. This is actually surprising because the area under Bt cotton increased from a negligible 1.0% in 2003 to about 92% in 2011. Bt-cotton is a ‘plant protection’ technology meant for effective control of bollworms. Before the introduction of Bt-cotton in 2002, as much as 90% of the total insecticides used on cotton were directed for bollworm control. Extensive use of the technology on a large scale to an extent of 92% area by 2011 was expected to eliminate the need for insecticide use for bollworm control. Why then did the insecticide usage increase several-fold in all the major cotton states despite the rapid increase in area under Bt-cotton from 1% to 90% over the period 2003-2011? Bt-cotton technology is only meant to control bollworms and other caterpillars. It does not control the sap-sucking insects which generally cause higher levels of damage to hybrid cotton. Majority of the Bt cotton hybrids are highly susceptible to sap sucking insects and more than 1000 hybrids were approved for commercial cultivation during the period 2006-2011, which led to the multi-fold increase in the insecticide usage in cotton fields.

Similarly, the fertilizer usage (table 4) increased from 8.4 lakh tonnes in the base year to 25.7 lakh tonnes by 2011-12. As compared to the year 2002, the quantity of fertilizer usage in 2011 increased by 5.8 fold in Gujarat, 4.3 fold in Maharashtra, 4.2 fold in Karnataka and 2.5 fold in Andhra Pradesh. The monetary value of fertilizers also increased exorbitantly to an extent of more than double in 6 states and more than 5 fold in four of the 6 states.

Table 4. Impact of cotton hybrids on chemical usage

	Insecticide usage Rs Crores			Fertilizer usage Rs Crores			Fertilizer Lakh tonnes
	Base year”	2011**	x-fold change	Base year*	2011**	x-fold change	Base year*	2011**	x-fold change
Punjab	117	317	2.7	111	181	1.6	0.93	1.29	1.4
Haryana	100	121	1.2	77	129	1.7	0.60	0.81	1.3
Rajasthan	49	130	2.7	64	162	2.5	0.33	0.63	1.9
Gujarat	83	743	8.9	256	1837	7.2	1.11	6.50	5.8
Maharashtra	174	900	5.2	487	2788	5.7	2.59	11.19	4.3
MP	69	137	2.0	82	177	2.2	0.59	0.65	1.1
AP	279	508	1.8	236	1184	5.0	1.76	4.40	2.5
Kar	24	50	2.1	37	252	6.8	0.22	0.90	4.2
TN	25	20	0.8	49	85	1.7	0.31	0.33	1.1
	920	2926	3.18	1399	6795	4.86	8.44	26.7	3.16

*Base year = Year of Bt cotton approval. 2002 for Central and South India; 2005 for North India.

**2011-12: Area under Bt cotton was >90%

Clearly, saturation of cotton acreage with hybrid technology resulted in the need for excessive input usage, which in turn led to increased input costs. It is important to note that the ‘Bt-cotton’ technology was restricted only to hybrids in India and not in varieties as is the case with rest of the world. Though hybrid technology was developed in 1971, the hybrid area in India never crossed more than 40% until 2002 when total number of cotton hybrids released until then was just about 40. ‘Bt-cotton’ was approved in India for commercial cultivation in 2002. During 2006-2011 more than 1000 hybrids were approved for commercial cultivation in India. The use of chemical fertilizers and insecticides increased multi-fold during this period.

Increased cost of cultivation

Cost of cultivation has increased over the past few years because of four major input components, namely seed, fertilizers, pesticides and labour. The cost of cultivation in 2011 was Rs 61,659 in AP and Rs 61,907 in Maharashtra. It is pertinent to note that more than 95% of the cotton area in Maharashtra is primarily dependent on rains and more than 82% area in erstwhile AP is under rain-fed cultivation. The cost of cultivation in these two states with such vast areas under rain-fed cotton is more of a gamble and points out to high risks. Such investment is beset with lesser risk in the 100% irrigated cotton of North India. Similarly, high investment of Rs 58,388 in Gujarat and Rs 61,319 in Tamilnadu are not prone to higher risks because of the 40-50% area under irrigation in the two states.

Table 5. Cost of cultivation, net profits and rate of suicides

	Cost of cultivation Rs per hectare			Net Profit Annual Average Rs per hectare			Annual Average of Suicide numbers per year
	Base year*	2011**	x-fold change	1996-2002	2003-2011	Difference	1995-2003	2004-2013	Difference
Punjab	33983	66698	1.96	-1448	13515	14964	81	79	-2
Haryana	26738	62330	2.33	498	12997	12499	164	238	74
Rajasthan	17594	56097	3.19	5850	26242	20391	556	509	-47
Gujarat	23396	58388	2.50	2277	17274	14997	578	530	-48
Maharashtra	20990	61907	2.95	-1104	1867	2971	2656	3685	1029
MP	18664	42289	2.27	-1642	8433	10075	1910	1312	-598
AP	36202	61659	1.70	1815	6421	4606	1613	2440	827
Kar	11126	45077	4.05	299	6081	5782	2305	1968	-337
TN	34386	61319	1.78	-3305	1880	5186	1000	710	-290

*Base year = Year of Bt cotton approval. 2002 for Central and South India; 2005 for North India.

**2011-12: Area under Bt cotton was >90%

Bt cotton was approved in 2002 for commercial cultivation in Central and South India, and 2005 for cultivation in North India. In the first year of approval, the area under Bt cotton was almost negligible and thus 2002 was considered as the base year for Central and South India and 2005 for North India. By 2011-12, Bt cotton occupied more than 92% of the cotton area in India. Thus, it would be an appropriate assumption to consider the difference in input usage between 2011 and the base year is a result of the impact of Bt cotton.

The cost of cultivation (table 5) increased by 1.96 to 3.2 fold in North India in 6 years after the introduction of Bt cotton in 2005. The cost of cultivation in Central and South India increased significantly by 2011 after 9 years of Bt cotton introduction. The increase was 1.7 to 1.78 fold in erstwhile AP and Tamilnadu and 2.27 to 2.95 fold increase in Maharashtra, MP and Gujarat. However, the 4 fold increase in the cost of cultivation in Karnataka is a major concern.

Conclusion of Part-2

It is clear that the ever increasing ‘cost of cultivation’ coupled with yield uncertainties and declining net profits from rain-fed cotton farming are causing distress over the past few years. The introduction of ‘Bt-cotton’ certainly increased the profit levels, especially in the irrigated regions, where the stress levels have always been low. But did the technology prompt increased use of inputs? This needs to be examined more critically in Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka where cotton farming is predominantly rain-fed and high cost of cultivation can easily drive farmers towards distress. In the next part, I will deal with the specific factors that contributed to high cost of cultivation; what causes the distress and the possible solutions to the vexed problem of farmer suicides in rain-fed cotton farming regions of India.

Agrarian Crisis – Why farmers commit suicide? Part-3

Over the past 10 years, ‘Bt-cotton’ technology emerged as a major driver of change. Bollworms were effectively controlled, cotton yields were protected and insecticide usage against bollworms decreased. Though there was a very impressive decline in the insecticide usage initially during the first 5 years of Bt cotton until 2007, subsequently over the past 6-7 years, the usage of fertilizers and chemical pesticides increased continuously. Minor insects which were not controlled by Bt cotton became major pests and necessitated extensive insecticide usage. Hybrids are designed to respond to fertilizers. Higher yields are generally obtained with irrigation and optimum levels of fertilizer application. Hybrids are known for hybrid vigour in producing large amount of biomass, which eventually results in nutrient mining from the soil. If the soil is not properly replenished with balanced macronutrients, secondary and micronutrients, the subsequent crop is likely to suffer higher levels of insect and disease infestation. It is widely acknowledged that higher levels of nitrogenous fertilizers make the crop more vulnerable to insect pests, thus, warranting the need for repeated insecticide applications. Research results have shown that micronutrient deficiencies also render cotton crop more vulnerable to sap-sucking insects and diseases. The increase in usage of pesticides, fertilizers, high-priced GM seed and costly labour, has resulted in high cost of cultivation.

The following factors have contributed to the high cost of cultivation:

1.       GM Hybrid seed: Hybrid seeds are produced manually through a labour intensive process and thus are expensive to produce. The seeds are produced every year and farmers are required to buy fresh hybrid seeds every year. GM technology is royalty driven. The GM hybrid seed is at least 6-7 fold costlier than the conventional non-GM varieties. The DES data shows that in 2011, farmers spent Rs 3595 per hectare on seeds, which is more than triple the cost of Rs 1086 per hectare spent in 2003. This may have been due to the expensive Bt-cotton GM hybrid seeds. High seed cost plays a major role in causing distress especially in rain-fed regions which warrant re-sowing when germination is poor because of erratic onset of monsoon. This problem is more acute in the predominantly rain-fed states of Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka which spent more than Rs 3700 per hectare in 2011. Maharashtra has 95% of its cotton area under rain-fed conditions, while Karnataka and Telangana have more than 86% of the cotton area dependent on rains alone for water requirement of the crop. Thus seed cost plays truant in rain-fed regions to create initial distress.

2.       Nutrient mining by hybrid cotton, micronutrient deficiencies and increased biotic stress: Continuous cultivation of hybrid cotton in the same field causes immense nutrient mining. If not replenished appropriately, nutrient deficiencies increase cumulatively and so does the need for increased application of fertilizers. Over the past few years, biotic stress factors such as leaf reddening and sap-sucking pest infestation increased significantly due to the deficiencies of a few micronutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. Non-replenishment of Nitrogen + phosphorous + potash (NPK) in a balanced manner coupled with deficiencies of secondary and micronutrients such as magnesium, zinc and boron renders the crop susceptible to insect pests and diseases. Imbalanced fertilizer usage is partly because of the Government subsidized ‘Statutory Price Control (SPC)’ policy of only urea for Nitrogen (N) and not any other nutrients such as P, K or micronutrients. Over the past 5 years, the price of ‘muriate of potash (K)’ quadrupled; the price of phosphatic (P) fertilizers tripled, but urea cost increased only marginally. As a result farmers have been using urea in excessive quantities but very less of P and K, thus leading to imbalanced fertilizer and increase in insect pests, especially sap-sucking pests and diseases.

3.       Bt hybrids are susceptible to sap-sucking insect pests: Bt-hybrids control only caterpillars and bollworms. ‘Bt-technology’ does not control sap-sucking insect pests such as thrips, jassids and whiteflies which cause extensive damage. Majority of commercial hybrids are highly susceptible to sap-sucking insect pests.

4.       Insecticide resistant sucking insect pests: Sap-sucking pests have developed resistance to almost all the recommended insecticides, thereby prompting repeated insecticide applications.

5.       Labour shortages and high wages: Though extremely valuable in providing employment in rural areas, there are reports that the MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee) scheme is actually causing labour shortages for crucial agriculture operations thus leading to increased demand for wages and high cost of labour. The DES data (table 4) shows that as compared to the base year of 2003, labour wages in 2011-12 had increased exorbitantly by at least 7 fold in Karnataka, erstwhile AP, Maharashtra and Gujarat. The labour wages in AP increased to Rs 19,351 from Rs 6,343 per hectare. Similarly the wages in Maharashtra increased from Rs 4,702 to Rs 20,127 and the wages in Gujarat increased from Rs 7510 in 2003 to Rs 20,013 per hectare in 2011.

What is causing the stress?

Is cotton responsible for the stress? Logical reasoning suggests that this may not be the case. Firstly, if cotton was the cause of crisis, farmers would have shifted to other crops especially in Maharashtra and Telangana wherein agrarian crisis is intense. Instead, the area under cotton increased by 1.0 million hectares in each of the two states over the past 10 years right in the face of agrarian crisis. Further, if cotton was the cause, then, the agrarian stress would have been equally perceptible in the other major cotton growing states such as Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. But this has not been the case at any point of time in the past. For example, suicides are also high in states such as Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka where the area under cotton cultivation is less than 4.0% is not a major crop and conversely suicides are negligible in Gujarat and Haryana where cotton area is 25% and 16.8% of the area under agriculture in the two states respectively. Therefore relating cotton cultivation with suicides could be spurious. Moreover, as stated in the CACP Annual Report 2014, “The net rate of gross return, i.e., profitability over C2 (cost of production) is also maximum for cotton at 32 percent among kharif crops considered in the analysis (page 36, Price policy for Kharif crops 2014, Commission for agricultural costs and prices CACP, Government of India). Therefore it would be grossly erroneous to conclude that cotton cultivation could be the cause of agrarian crisis.

It would only be correct to state that like many crops, cotton is also facing a crisis of high input costs and stagnant yields, but in rain-fed regions where hybrid cultivation is not very profitable. The entire analysis points out to the fact that high cost of cultivation and low net returns cause great stress (graphs 6 to 9). Unfortunately, consistently pathetic and low net returns coupled with high cost of cultivation in Maharashtra and high investment beset with constant risks in Andhra Pradesh pose great concerns to cotton farming. Cotton cultivation in the other cotton growing states was found to be reasonably risk-free. Analysis (graph 6) shows that in Punjab and Haryana, the annual net profits on investment of Rs 100 were Rs 26 to 27 for the 6 year period after 2005. The net profits during this period were highest at Rs 71.33 in Rajasthan. However during the 10 year period prior to 2005, the annual average net returns on Rs 100 invested on cotton cultivation were negative at Rs -10.44 per year in Punjab and Rs -0.02 per year in Haryana but positive in Rajasthan at Rs 39 per year. Cotton was found to be profitable in Gujarat with Rs 15.39 per year for every Rs 100 invested during the 7 year period prior to 2002 and Rs 44.77 per year for the 9 year period after 2003. Cotton in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka provided net annual average profits of more than Rs 20 per Rs 100 invested over the 9 year period subsequent to 2003. Though the net returns were low in Tamilnadu, farmers are relatively less affected because of the assured irrigation in at least 40% of the 1.0 lakh hectares in the state.

It is a pity that farmers of Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh have to invest more than Rs 61,000 per hectare every year after 2011, to cultivate cotton under predominantly rain-fed conditions subjecting themselves to high risks. Beyond doubt, the entire analysis points towards high level of stress in Maharashtra and erstwhile Andhra Pradesh. In Andhra Pradesh, the returns are low at Rs 14.9 per year per Rs 100 investment, but are better than Maharashtra. Nevertheless, the most important factor that causes immense stress in Telangana and AP is the high level of fluctuation in net profits per year. Please see graph 9 to get an idea of the year to year fluctuations that indicate enormous risks with cotton cultivation in the two states.

The net annual average returns in Maharashtra for an investment of Rs 100 were negative at Rs -5.26 for a period of 7 years prior to 2002 and a meagre Rs 3.82 per year for Rs 100 invested during 9 years after 2003. Indeed such low net returns can certainly cause agony to the 40 lakh farming families whose sole livelihood depends on cotton cultivation under rain-fed conditions. In light of the negligible annual profits, the high investment of more than 61,000 per year will have to be essentially drawn from money lenders or banks. Needless to mention, the extremely poor returns and high seasonal risks have been the hallmark of low productive cotton cultivation systems in Maharashtra for the past two decades. Clearly these conditions are only likely to get worse in the near immediate future with the ever increasing cost of inputs and labour.

Are there any solutions?

Suicides reflect agrarian crisis and agrarian stress is primarily related to declining profitability especially in small scale farms in rain-fed tracts. As has been pointed by many researchers, suicides in rural India could be part of a very complex phenomenon which in many cases is intricately woven into socio-economic aspects of agrarian societies. This article examines the economic crisis only from the perspective of cotton cultivation and does not take a look either at the relative socio-economic dynamics or economic stress that may have been caused either due to other crops or the aberrant weather or any other system changes in the agrarian sector. Based on the analysis, it should be possible to find appropriate long term sustainable solutions at least for cotton which is a major crop in Maharashtra and Telangana states where agrarian stress can be very acute because of the high risk involved with predominantly rain-fed farming in the two states.  

A few of the possible tangible solutions are:

1.       A provision for special state specific minimum support price (MSP) of cotton at 50% above the production cost (C2) in Maharashtra and Telangana which have more than 90% of cotton area under rain-fed tracts. The special MSP can be operated in the two states by the Cotton Corporation of India.

2.       Reduction in cost of production by lowering down input costs using varieties (variety seeds can be re-sown, whereas hybrid seeds cannot be re-sown) coupled with legume based cotton cropping systems that can effectively help in natural cotton pest management, strengthen soil nutrient management through nitrogen fixation thereby reducing chemical inputs, enhancing yields and overall profitability.

3.       Approval of Bt-varieties in addition to the existing By-hybrids. The seeds of Bt varieties can be reused and cost of inputs could be reduced to at least half of the current costs incurred with Bt-hybrids.

4.       Enhancing irrigation and infrastructure facilities in Maharashtra and Telangana

5.       Part-time disabling of MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee) scheme during Kharif season to ensure labour availability in the cotton growing states.

This study shows that of all the cotton growing states, net returns were the lowest in Maharashtra. Is it possible to increase the net profits from cotton cultivation in Maharashtra? For profits to increase the cost of production must decrease substantially and the yields coupled with cotton market prices should increase significantly. Unfortunately, the cost of seeds, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, labour wages and transport are increasing every year, while the cotton yields and market price are either stagnating or decreasing over the recent immediate past. Thankfully, there is immense scope for Government policies especially to support critical inputs, labour availability, mechanization, export-imports and pricing to ensure that cotton farming becomes more profitable in rain-fed farms. Farmers need inexpensive seeds, good quality bio-pesticides, bio-fertilizers and machinery to reduce dependence on labour. Timely availability of inputs and labour can help immensely in reducing the stress and enhancing yields. But on topmost priority, there is a need to support research that can lower down the cost of cotton production and enhance ecological and economic sustainability of cotton production systems.

More importantly, cotton price needs to be protected. Government support can be helpful in this endeavour. The National Commission on Farmers chaired by Prof Swaminathan recommended setting up of minimum support price at 50% above the production cost. It is reported that over the past 7-8 years in China, farmers were being paid about 50% higher price than ‘Cotlook-A’ through Government schemes. However, there is a need to conduct an in-depth analysis to understand the implications of enhanced MSP on the overall cotton economics that can enable the development of appropriate strategies to benefit farmers, traders, value chain industry and the consumer.

Cotton cultivation is highly labour intensive with a need for 110 to 120 man-days per hectare. In a decentralized farming set up such as the one in India where millions of farmers manage their own small farms, small scale machinery would be useful to circumvent labour shortages. But such machinery can also displace labour to create a new crisis in the rural sector.

Another important issue relates to varietal seeds. It would be immensely helpful if the Government can intervene to ensure that the option of ‘GM variety seeds’ should also be available to farmers In India, as is the case with all other cotton growing countries across the globe. GM variety seeds can cost less than one-third of the GM hybrid seeds. This can make a huge difference in rain-fed regions, because early sowing of early maturing compact Bt-cotton varieties in high density planting can reduce the cost of cultivation in rain-fed regions by half and enhance the yields significantly.

Increase in the domestic consumption of raw cotton by the textile industry coupled with exports can immensely help stabilizing local prices. Governments can play a significant role by enhancing infrastructure facilities related to cotton cultivation and trade especially in Maharashtra, Telangana, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

Water management can play a significant role in rain-fed regions. Construction of check-dams, farms ponds and micro-irrigation can help enhancing cotton yields. Additionally, simple technologies such as rain water harvesting, soil moisture conservation through bio-mulching, reduced tillage and crop residue recycling especially in rain-fed farms have good potential to increase yields.

To ensure sustainable farming, it is extremely important to enhance the soil organic reserves through cropping system techniques. Crop residue incorporation, vermin-composting, bio-fertilizers, reduced tillage, organic manures etc., assist in increasing soil organic content and thereby enhance the crop response to fertilizers. In addition to these there is a need to explore sustainable crop production options. It may sound over-simplistic, but legume crops in cropping systems with cotton may actually provide long-term sustainable solutions. Legume crops such as beans, peas, gram, soybean, lucerne, berseem etc., fix large quantities of atmospheric nitrogen when the seeds are treated with nitrogen fixing bacterium species called ‘Rhzobium’. When cultivated as intercrop or in crop rotation, soybean and other legume crops act as hosts for naturally occurring insect predators and parasitoids thus reducing the need for chemical pesticides. Integrated nutrient management actually helps the crop to fight back insect pests and diseases thereby reducing the need for pesticides. These cropping systems provide good economic returns apart from greatly reducing the need for chemical fertilizers. Thus legume based cotton cropping systems can effectively help in cotton pest management, soil nutrient management and enhance profitability.

Conclusion

In conclusion, cotton is a profitable crop in general and is therefore preferred by farmers over many other Kharif crops. The net returns could be less in rain-fed farms, though. Like any crop in rain-fed agriculture, cotton could cause distress in rain-fed farms where the cost of cultivation is high, yields are risk prone and net profits are very low especially when monsoon behaves erratically over the season. Clearly, agrarian stress is related to the declining net returns in agriculture and cannot be related to cotton cultivation alone. But, there are long term sustainable solutions that can lower down the cost of production and increase yields. Thus, there is no room for despair. Indian farmers are resilient and can usher in a second farm revolution in India, if supported with proper technologies and policies. It needs a collective efforts from all stakeholders to ensure that the farmer confidence in rain-fed cotton farms is restored as we progress towards eco-friendly, sustainable and profitable farming systems.